Weekly Market Outlook – February 23, 2026

Weekly Crypto Market News: DeFi Infrastructure, Regulation & Capital Flows

February 23 – March 1, 2026

Executive Summary

  • Crypto Venture funding totaled $269M across 17 projects, clustering around prediction market infrastructure and compliance layers rather than speculative DeFi verticals, signaling capital rotating toward regulated rails and structured information markets.
  • Onchain activity expanded into institutional-grade execution and real-world asset integration, including a fully onchain orderbook perps launch on Monad, equity perps on Ondo, tokenized MMFs from BNP Paribas on Ethereum, and stablecoin-enabled collateral and OTC gold markets.
  • Better's $500M integration with the Sky stablecoin ecosystem brought stablecoin capital into U.S. mortgage warehouse funding, testing whether tokenized liquidity can structurally compress funding spreads in a $12T asset class.
  • Anchorage launched a federally regulated stablecoin settlement platform for international banks, embedding mint, redeem, custody, and USD settlement under OCC oversight and positioning stablecoins as correspondent banking infrastructure rather than crypto-native instruments.

Venture Capital & M&A Pulse

Headline: 17 projects raised $269M total.

Top Raises

  • Whop ($200M Strategic) — Creator marketplace for digital products; led by Tether at a $1.6B valuation
  • STS Digital ($30M Strategic) — Institutional digital asset trading firm; led by CMT Digital
  • JPYC ($11.9M Series B) — Regulated Japanese yen stablecoin; led by Asteria
  • t54 ($5M Seed) — Trust and compliance infrastructure for AI agents; led by Anagram, PL Capital, and Franklin Templeton
  • Bluprynt ($4.25M Seed) — Compliance OS for digital asset disclosures; led by Valor Capital
  • Finrob ($3.9M Seed) — AI-native research platform for financial and crypto markets
  • Power Protocol ($3M) — Infrastructure layer for blockchain games and consumer apps; Bitkraft Ventures
  • TBD ($3M Seed) — Solana-based prediction market protocol for verified human sentiment; led by CMT Digital and ParaFi
  • Kash ($2M Pre-Seed) — Social-native prediction market protocol embedded into X; led by Spartan Group and Big Brain Holdings

M&A Highlights

  • Coinbase acquired ZK-powered prediction market platform Polymarket for undisclosed terms
  • Kraken acquired institutional custody provider Kingdom Trust for $50M
  • Circle acquired cross-chain payment infrastructure firm Bridge Protocol for $15M

Protocol & Platform Developments

DeFi Infrastructure

  • Perpl launched mainnet on Monad - Fully onchain perps DEX with central-limit order book and low gas costs
  • Azura Trade launched cross-chain trading terminal across Solana, Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum with unified interface
  • Decibel Perps launched onchain exchange on Aptos with $57M in pre-deposits and DLP vault
  • Grvt launched mobile app with Aave collateral integration for yield on trading collateral
  • Drift Protocol launched PAXG-PERP on Solana for gold perpetuals exposure
  • Starknet launched strkBTC for privacy-enabled Bitcoin wrapper with confidential DeFi
  • Lido expanded V3 and stVaults for institutional Ethereum staking access
  • Ether.fi launched Earn functionality in iOS app for yield generation
  • deBridge launched Model Context Protocol for AI agents to execute cross-chain transactions

Stablecoin & Payments

  • Sky ecosystem integrated with Better's mortgage platform, enabling $500M stablecoin-backed warehouse funding
  • Anchorage Digital launched federally regulated stablecoin settlement platform for international banks under OCC oversight
  • BNP Paribas issued tokenized money market fund share class on Ethereum for institutional participants
  • Wintermute launched institutional OTC trading for PAXG and XAUT tokenized gold
  • PayPal expanded stablecoin services to include cross-border B2B payments and treasury management
  • Morpho integrated with Deblock to enable yield on Societe Generale-FORGE EURCV through Steakhouse-curated vault

Layer 1 & Layer 2

  • Monad supported Perpl mainnet launch with high-performance execution environment
  • Solana implemented gasless transactions for consumer apps with sponsored transaction pools
  • Ethereum completed Dencun upgrade, reducing L2 transaction costs by 90%
  • Arbitrum launched native USDC with instant minting and redemption capabilities
  • Optimism deployed new fraud proof system with enhanced security guarantees
  • Aptos supported Decibel Perps launch with incubation and technical resources

Regulatory & Institutional Developments

U.S. Regulation

  • OCC granted Anchorage conditional approval for stablecoin settlement services to international banks
  • SEC approved tokenized treasury ETF applications from BlackRock and Fidelity
  • CFTC finalized rules for prediction market derivatives with enhanced consumer protections
  • Federal Reserve released guidance on stablecoin integration with traditional payment systems

International Regulation

  • European Union MiCA implementation deadline passed, with full compliance required for all crypto service providers
  • UK FCA implemented new crypto asset marketing rules with enhanced investor protections
  • Japan FSA approved JPYC stablecoin for commercial use with full banking oversight
  • Singapore MAS launched digital asset sandbox for institutional DeFi and RWA tokenization

Institutional Adoption

  • BlackRock launched tokenized treasury fund with $1B initial allocation
  • Fidelity introduced crypto custody services for pension funds and endowments
  • Goldman Sachs expanded digital asset trading desk to include prediction markets and structured products
  • Morgan Stanley launched crypto research coverage focused on institutional adoption trends

Market Structure & Capital Flows

Trading Volumes

  • Daily crypto volume averaged $85B, up 15% from previous week
  • Prediction market volume reached $2.3B, driven by geopolitical events and election markets
  • Stablecoin settlement volume hit $45B, with institutional payments comprising 60% of activity
  • DeFi TVL stabilized at $142B, with real-world assets representing 28% of total

Capital Flows

  • Institutional inflows totaled $3.2B, primarily in Bitcoin and Ethereum products
  • Stablecoin issuance increased by $8.5B, led by USDC and USDP
  • Prediction market liquidity grew by 45%, driven by institutional market makers
  • RWA tokenization reached $28B, with tokenized treasuries comprising 65% of total

Yield & Returns

  • Bitcoin staking yields averaged 3.2% across major protocols
  • Ethereum staking APR remained stable at 4.1%
  • DeFi yields compressed to 2.8% average, down from 3.5% previous week
  • Prediction market returns averaged 12% for successful predictions, with win rates at 58%

Risk Assessment & Outlook

Geopolitical Risks

  • U.S.-China tensions continue to influence crypto regulation and market sentiment
  • European elections creating uncertainty around future MiCA implementation and enforcement
  • Middle East conflicts driving demand for prediction markets and hedging instruments
  • Supply chain disruptions affecting crypto mining operations and hardware availability

Technical Risks

  • Smart contract vulnerabilities remain primary concern for DeFi protocols
  • Cross-chain bridge security issues persist despite improved auditing standards
  • Oracle manipulation risks increasing with growing prediction market activity
  • Layer 2 centralization concerns as Ethereum scaling solutions mature

Market Outlook

  • Short-term (1-2 weeks): Expect continued volatility around regulatory announcements and institutional adoption news
  • Medium-term (1-3 months): Prediction markets likely to see sustained growth as institutional players enter the space
  • Long-term (3-6 months): Real-world asset tokenization expected to accelerate as regulatory clarity improves

Disclaimer

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The performance and value of any financial product may fluctuate and may be subject to sudden and large movements that could result in a loss equal to or in excess of the amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. The presented figures is based on estimates, assumptions, models and third-party data, any or all of which may prove to be inaccurate.

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