Weekly Market Outlook – January 12, 2026

Weekly Crypto Market News: DeFi Infrastructure, Regulation & Capital Flows

January 5 – 11, 2026

Edge Capital’s weekly assessment of crypto markets, regulation, capital flows, and protocol developments across digital assets.

Executive Summary

  • Funding was led by Rain’s $250M Series C, with additional capital flowing into Bitcoin staking, stablecoin-based brokerage, and interoperability. M&A activity focused on institutional accounting, staking infrastructure, and regulated investment products.
  • DeFi activity focused on yield and carry products, with Yield Basis expanding a WETH vault, Falcon launching a BTC yield vault, and Liminal introducing xBTC, alongside incremental protocol upgrades and new perps venues.
  • Aave v4’s three‑layer risk premium engine shifts borrowing costs from uniform, pool‑level rates to collateral‑sensitive pricing, rewarding blue‑chip collateral and monetizing higher risk books while enabling safer expansion into long‑tail assets and RWAs.
  • Zcash saw the resignation of the Electric Coin Company team following a governance dispute, marking an organizational reset rather than a protocol failure, with the same core developers continuing work under a new structure and no loss of technical or cryptographic capability.

Venture Capital & M&A Pulse

Headline: 16 projects raised $495M total.

Top Raises

  • Rain ($250M Series C) – Global card issuance and payments infrastructure for tokenized money
  • Babylon ($15M Private Token Sale) – Bitcoin staking expanding into trustless lending vaults
  • HabitTrade ($10M Series A) – Global brokerage with stablecoin-based settlement rails
  • ZenChain ($8.5M) – Interoperability layer connecting Bitcoin-native capital to EVM ecosystems

M&A Highlights

  • Fireblocks (acquired TRES Finance for $130M) – Crypto accounting, reconciliation, and financial controls integrated into Fireblocks’ institutional stack
  • The Tie (acquired Stakin) – Institutional staking provider added as a new infrastructure vertical
  • Coincheck (acquired 3iQ for $112M) – Regulated ETFs, staking, and managed accounts added to Coincheck’s institutional footprint

Emerging Themes

  • Institutional payments and financial controls are consolidating

Rain’s outsized raise and Fireblocks’ acquisition of TRES point to capital flowing into compliant payments, accounting, and control infrastructure for institutions.

DeFi Launch Radar

Protocol & Chain Releases

  • Denaria** | Linea | Perpetual DEX launch**

Linea’s first native perps DEX went live in closed testing, validating its stack ahead of broader public access.

  • Temple** | Canton Network | Trading platform launch**

Temple launched as the first native trading venue on Canton, enabling private, non custodial digital asset trading.

New Feature Rollout

Arbitrum deployed ArbOS Dia, improving fee stability during demand spikes and enabling higher throughput and future interop features.

Rocket Pool launched its final queued minipool, temporarily limiting new rETH issuance ahead of the Saturn One upgrade.

Ecosystem Expansions

Yield Basis launched an impermanent loss free WETH pool with a $25 million cap that filled within minutes.

Falcon launched a BTC vault offering 3 to 5 percent APR paid in USDf while maintaining full BTC exposure.

Liminal launched xBTC, a neutral BTC carry product distributing Hyperliquid funding yield across DeFi.

Token Launches

Trove launched the TROVE token via an overflow ICO running Jan 8–11 with a $2.5M raise target and $20M FDV cap, supporting leveraged prediction, collectibles, and RWA markets.

Token Unlocks & Airdrops

Token Unlocks

According to Tokenomist:

  • One-time large token unlocks (exceeding $5 million) in the next 7 days include ONDO, TRUMP, CONX, ARB, DBR, CHEEL, STRK, SEI, ZK, etc.;
  • Linear large unlocks (daily amounts exceeding $1 million) in the next 7 days include RAIN, SOL, TRUMP, WLD, RIVER, DOGE, AVAX, ASTER, TAO, etc., with total unlock value exceeding $1.69 billion.

Last Week Highlights

Aave Risk Evolution

Aave v4 shifts Aave’s lending model from uniform borrowing costs toward collateral‑sensitive risk pricing, with direct implications for user behavior, collateral mix, and protocol revenues.

Premium-Based Pricing

Aave v3 prices credit risk only at the market level, so all borrowers in a given pool pay the same rate regardless of collateral quality, effectively forcing blue‑chip collateral users to subsidize riskier borrowers.

Aave v4 introduces a multi‑layered risk premium system that links borrowing costs to the actual risk of the collateral set, aiming to align incentives for safer collateral and more sustainable protocol economics.

Market-Level Pricing

In v3, borrowing rates are driven purely by asset‑level utilization curves, without any user‑specific or collateral‑specific premium. A user borrowing stablecoins against ETH pays the same rate as one borrowing against a volatile long‑tail token in the same market, even though the tail risk and liquidation behavior differ meaningfully.

This structure constrains asset onboarding: adding higher‑risk collateral raises perceived pool risk for all lenders, which can trigger withdrawals, higher volatility in rates, and balkanization of liquidity across markets. It also means the protocol cannot easily charge more for genuinely risky exposures without penalizing users posting high‑quality collateral.

Multi-Layer Premiums

v4 introduces a base rate from the Liquidity Hub, still set by supply–demand, and then applies additive risk premiums on top, so users with “safe” collateral pay close to the base rate while riskier books incur higher effective APRs. For example, ETH collateral can have 0% collateral risk and pay only the base rate, whereas assets like LINK or UNI can carry non‑zero risk scores (e.g., 30–40%) that scale up the interest owed relative to the base debt.

The system operates across three levels:

  • Asset Liquidity Premiums assign each listed asset a risk score (from 0% for top‑tier majors to potentially several hundred percent for thin or experimental tokens), adjustable by governance as liquidity and volatility evolve.
  • User Risk Premiums aggregate a wallet’s collateral into a weighted average premium, so blended collateral sets translate into blended borrowing costs.
  • Spoke Risk Premiums capture average risk at the market‑segment level (e.g., eMode LST spoke vs. an RWA spoke), allowing specialized markets to tune risk pricing while still plugging into unified hub liquidity.

This architecture lets Aave list more diverse collateral types, including newer LRTs and RWAs, while reflecting their idiosyncratic risk via higher premiums rather than blunt LTV caps alone. It also ties protocol revenue more tightly to the actual risk taken, as incremental premium flows scale with collateral risk instead of only with utilization.

Collateral Quality Signal

For users, v4 risk premiums create a clear pricing signal: high‑quality collateral is explicitly rewarded with lower borrowing costs, while higher‑beta or illiquid collateral becomes more expensive to lever. This should nudge sophisticated borrowers toward optimizing collateral stacks and discourage “free‑riding” on blue‑chip depositors, especially around stress events.

For the broader market, more granular risk pricing makes it easier to onboard long‑tail assets and RWAs without socializing tail risk, supporting Aave’s ambition to be a generalized credit layer rather than a blue‑chip‑only venue. If executed well, risk‑aligned premiums can improve the resilience of Aave’s liquidity during volatility spikes and potentially set a standard for risk‑based pricing across DeFi lending.

Zcash Governance Reset and the Exit of Electric Coin Company

Zcash’s Development Structure

Zcash was originally created and developed by Electric Coin Company, which built most of the protocol’s core tooling and infrastructure. ECC began as a for profit Delaware LLC funded through the Zcash Founders’ Reward, giving it both development responsibility and a direct economic stake in the network.

Alongside ECC, the Zcash Foundation operates as an independent nonprofit focused on community governance. The Foundation manages ZCAP, public forums, grants, and acts as a counterweight to ECC within the protocol’s governance process.

Why ECC Was Transferred to Bootstrap

After 2020, ECC was donated at no cost to the nonprofit Bootstrap Project. The stated intent was to align Zcash development with a nonprofit governance model and remove the tension between profit motives and public good infrastructure.

Bootstrap’s 501(c)(3) status gave it legal control over ECC’s operations and major assets. In practice, this imposed nonprofit legal constraints that fundamentally altered how ECC could operate. External investment became effectively impossible, and asset privatization such as spinning out products like the Zashi wallet was blocked. Board imposed employment and governance changes further constrained management flexibility, gradually making ECC’s operating model unworkable.

Governance Before the Breakdown

Prior to the crisis, Zcash governance followed a relatively stable and transparent process. Protocol changes flowed through the ZIP framework, where anyone could propose a Zcash Improvement Proposal. Each ZIP was reviewed by two editors, one from ECC and one from the Zcash Foundation, before activation through on chain network adoption.

This dual editor model was designed to balance technical expertise with independent oversight, while keeping ultimate authority with the network itself.

_The Current Situation _

The governance structure fractured when the entire ECC team resigned following a dispute with the Bootstrap board. The team has framed the event as constructive discharge, citing governance and legal constraints rather than technical or financial failure.

Critically, the resignations do not appear to represent a loss of talent. The same engineers continue working on Zcash under a new structure, and there is no indication that core protocol expertise has exited the ecosystem.

Zashi, the flagship Zcash wallet built by ECC, remains maintained by this team. A new wallet, cashZ, is being launched from the same codebase and is positioned as its direct successor. There are no plans for a new token or economic fork.

What Actually Changed

The primary impact of the crisis is organizational. Zcash has not lost its core developers, cryptographic expertise, or roadmap intent. Instead, it has lost a formal corporate wrapper that had become incompatible with effective execution.

The main risk going forward is execution delay as the team re establishes legal, operational, and governance structures. There is no evidence of protocol risk, developer flight, or strategic abandonment of Zcash.

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